Too Early To Crown The Champ After Dover
By: Gregg A. Shultz, RaceFanVote.com 09-23-08
Two races into the Chase, Kyle Busch is out of it, Dale Jr. is struggling and some less talked
about drivers are stepping up. The top 5 drivers in points include a couple that wouldn’t
surprise you and a couple that might.
The talk so far this week isn’t so much about who will win the championship, rather who is
already out of contention.
The consensus seems to be that the drivers 6th – 12th are out of it, despite the fact that there
are only 87 points separating those positions and the 6th place driver, Clint Bowyer, is only
106 points behind first.
When you look at the surprise last place in the Chase driver, Kyle Busch, he is 210 points out
of the lead. He could go on another run, get a couple of wins and yet still not catch Edwards,
Biffle or Johnson if one or all don’t have some sort of issue. At this point it’s improbable, but
not impossible that he could catch them and go on to win the championship.
The key point is that no one in the top 12 is mathematically out of it at this point and trying to
make predictions based on the past is an exercise in futility. There are too many variables still
to come to do that with any amount of accuracy. Using the way that the first two Chase races
have gone, learn to expect the unexpected.
The points system is a confounding animal, stubborn and ruthless to those trying to catch up
when the drivers ahead of them simply have ‘decent’ races. Greg Biffle will tell you that for
sure, despite winning both races so far in the Chase and being relegated to 3rd in points for his
efforts. Never mind that he is only 10 points out of the lead and in reality tied for second. It
writes better and is more dramatic to say he is in 3rd.
As miniscule as the advantage is from first to third, it shows just how difficult it is for a driver
to gain ground when the drivers ahead of them are finishing in the top 5 consistently. When
you look at it that way you can see why Kyle Busch might be frustrated.
This all maintains only if all of the drivers in the top 5 continue at their current pace. One bad
race and it could change everything, but don’t hold your breath.
For all of 2008 so far, Edwards has only one DNF this season, Biffle 2, Johnson 1 and Jeff
Burton 2.
5th in points, Kevin Harvick not only has no DNF’s this season, but has been on an impressive
run of 8-top 10 finishes in a row.
There is not much there to show you that the drivers in the top 5 in points are going to roll
over any time soon.
Consistency alone will not win you a championship, but it sure makes it hard for the drivers
below you to catch you.
So, what’s the verdict? Is it too early to crown the champ? Probably. Is it too early to say who
is already out of it? Probably not.
It is definitely one of those deals that the planets would have to align just perfectly, the drivers
out of the top 5 would have to be flawless and possibly get a win or two in order to have even
a remote shot at the championship. Add in that the above mentioned drivers with their stats
would also have to falter and the task looks even more grim.
Having favorites might extend beyond who you cheer for into which driver you think might
actually have the best chance to win the championship. That is where a lot of fans get torn
when trying to determine what they think about the way that the Chase is going so far.
If your favorite is far down in the points right now, Greg Biffle or Carl Edwards might be
universally popular Champions.
The potential of Greg Biffle winning adds an extra element having the potential to be the first
driver to win the Championship in all three NASCAR series in Truck, Nationwide and Cup.
A lot of fans do not know that Biffle is already a Champion in the other two series and it
definitely would be a great storyline to follow.
By: Gregg A. Shultz, RaceFanVote.com 09-23-08
Two races into the Chase, Kyle Busch is out of it, Dale Jr. is struggling and some less talked
about drivers are stepping up. The top 5 drivers in points include a couple that wouldn’t
surprise you and a couple that might.
The talk so far this week isn’t so much about who will win the championship, rather who is
already out of contention.
The consensus seems to be that the drivers 6th – 12th are out of it, despite the fact that there
are only 87 points separating those positions and the 6th place driver, Clint Bowyer, is only
106 points behind first.
When you look at the surprise last place in the Chase driver, Kyle Busch, he is 210 points out
of the lead. He could go on another run, get a couple of wins and yet still not catch Edwards,
Biffle or Johnson if one or all don’t have some sort of issue. At this point it’s improbable, but
not impossible that he could catch them and go on to win the championship.
The key point is that no one in the top 12 is mathematically out of it at this point and trying to
make predictions based on the past is an exercise in futility. There are too many variables still
to come to do that with any amount of accuracy. Using the way that the first two Chase races
have gone, learn to expect the unexpected.
The points system is a confounding animal, stubborn and ruthless to those trying to catch up
when the drivers ahead of them simply have ‘decent’ races. Greg Biffle will tell you that for
sure, despite winning both races so far in the Chase and being relegated to 3rd in points for his
efforts. Never mind that he is only 10 points out of the lead and in reality tied for second. It
writes better and is more dramatic to say he is in 3rd.
As miniscule as the advantage is from first to third, it shows just how difficult it is for a driver
to gain ground when the drivers ahead of them are finishing in the top 5 consistently. When
you look at it that way you can see why Kyle Busch might be frustrated.
This all maintains only if all of the drivers in the top 5 continue at their current pace. One bad
race and it could change everything, but don’t hold your breath.
For all of 2008 so far, Edwards has only one DNF this season, Biffle 2, Johnson 1 and Jeff
Burton 2.
5th in points, Kevin Harvick not only has no DNF’s this season, but has been on an impressive
run of 8-top 10 finishes in a row.
There is not much there to show you that the drivers in the top 5 in points are going to roll
over any time soon.
Consistency alone will not win you a championship, but it sure makes it hard for the drivers
below you to catch you.
So, what’s the verdict? Is it too early to crown the champ? Probably. Is it too early to say who
is already out of it? Probably not.
It is definitely one of those deals that the planets would have to align just perfectly, the drivers
out of the top 5 would have to be flawless and possibly get a win or two in order to have even
a remote shot at the championship. Add in that the above mentioned drivers with their stats
would also have to falter and the task looks even more grim.
Having favorites might extend beyond who you cheer for into which driver you think might
actually have the best chance to win the championship. That is where a lot of fans get torn
when trying to determine what they think about the way that the Chase is going so far.
If your favorite is far down in the points right now, Greg Biffle or Carl Edwards might be
universally popular Champions.
The potential of Greg Biffle winning adds an extra element having the potential to be the first
driver to win the Championship in all three NASCAR series in Truck, Nationwide and Cup.
A lot of fans do not know that Biffle is already a Champion in the other two series and it
definitely would be a great storyline to follow.
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